Western Europe and United States Power Lose the Global Economic Dominance
Posted: Monday, January 17, 2011
by Gaurav Virk
Human Rghts Online
The global financial crisis has accelerated the shift of economic power to emerging economies. E7 emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to exceed the developed economies of the G7 (U.S., Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada) in the near future, according to a report by PwC. PwC is one of the world's largest consulting services business with PwC 161,000 people in 154 countries.
In the 20th century the industrial revolution in Western Europe and the revolution of high technology in the United States has accelerated the shift of economic power to developed economies, particularly the United States . China and India has lost its dominant position in the economic power because of its large population and to not overtake the industrial revolution. In the 21st century, this temporary change of economic power is now in reverse, "said the PwC report on the world in 2050.
It's not just China and India, HSBC estimates that 19 of the 30 emerging economies increases five times larger than the developed countries. China and India are the largest first and the third economies worldwide by 2050, marking the return of world order revolution pre-industrial 18th and 19th centuries, with the United States at number two conclude two influential reports from HSBC and PwC, respectively.
What are the basic measurement of the global economy by HSBC and PwC?
Measuring GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) - which addresses the fact that price levels tend to be lower in emerging economies - the analysis shows that the E7 emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to exceed the G7 economies (United States , Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada) before 2020.
If instead we use the GDP at market exchange rates (MERs), then the passage in the world economic order is slower but just as relentless, with the E7 should go beyond the G7 countries around 2032. China also overtakes the United States the same year to become the largest economy in the world based on GDP at market exchange rates, but on a PPP this would likely occur before 2020. It's even taking into account a slowdown in the growth rate of China over time due to its one-child policy and the fact that, as she catches up with the United States, it must rely more on innovation than in imitation of continued growth.
These overrun estimated dates based on GDP at PPP exceeded estimated dates based on GDP as under: -
E7 economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of the G7 countries on PPP basis in 2017 and in 2032 based MER.
The economic dominance of China will surpass the economic dominance of the United States on PPPs basis in 2018 and in 2032 MERs based
India's economic dominance will exceed the economic dominance of Japan in 2011 on PPP basis and in 2028 based MER
Russian economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of Germany in 2014 on PPP basis and in 2042 based MER
Brazil economic domination exceed the economic dominance of the United Kingdom on PPP basis in 2013 and in 2023 MER
Mexico economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of France in 2028 on PPP basis and in 2046 based MER
Indonesia economic domination exceed the economic domination of Italy on PPP basis in 2030 and in 2039 MER
Turkey economic domination exceeds the economic domination of Canada in 2020 on PPP basis and in 2035 based MER
The most significant increase in its share of world GDP is actually projected for India rather than China. In 2009 India's share in world GDP was measured at only 2%. In 2050, this share could reach almost 13%. India may overtake Japan by 2011 based on GDP at PPP, and could even surpass the United States in 2050 on this basis.
The analysis shows that Australia and Argentina can be relegated to the ranks of the largest economies of the G20 in 2050, while Vietnam and Nigeria have the potential to join that list. Indonesia could rise from the largest economy in PPP terms sixteenth in 2009 to eighth place in 2050, surpassing not only in Italy but also France, the United Kingdom and Germany over the next 40 years. Under the measure, the UK does remain closely in the top ten in 2050 with a ranking of 9th place on GDP at market exchange rates, or based on the 10th GDP at PPP. John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said:
According to globalsecurity.org comparative military spending United States $ 623 billion, China is 65.0 billion and Russia $ 50.0 billion. No doubt the recession will be over in the near future in the United States. It has many natural resources and become more developed. In my opinion, borderless world has become flattened by information technology and social networking -- United States must stop its hypocrisy to say something and do something. Economic war is becoming more relevant than military war. The United States must cut its military spending at par with China and stop its war with the Muslim world before becoming insignificant. United States must subsidize its low technology products to make them competitive products from China, which are important source of employment in any country.
Gaurav Virk, the author has a strong motivation to support human-rights and publish research on rights articles worldwide info. Read latest Rights News : He is currently a final year student of techos Gian (Indian Information Technology) and Diploma in Human Rights.
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Top-level comments on this article: (4 total)Over the ages, civilizations have risen and fallen with a repetitious rhythm- I'm sure this will continue, as history does repeat itself continuously. This is an interesting, timely and intelligent article- Thanks Gaurav- Always- EllaCamp Ella, thank you for your comments. Intention of my article was to the point that the United States spends ten times more than China expentiture military and borrowung China. He has no sense and would cost the people heavely U.S.
Fully agree with you Gaurav! Anything can be explained as a Mathematical Model, since maths forms the basis for everything - the Universe, Solar system, time & tide, the colours of flowers and height of trees - name it, everything can be broken down into physics and chemistry, which again into numbers like atomic weight, molecules and atoms, forces of attraction, including gravity. As a Management professor teaching in India's two top universities, my formula for economic status is 3.5x + 3.0y + 3.5z = 100, where x represents (in the range of 1 to 10) the Heritage including Religion and cultural richness, y represents the land area and z the human resources (population). China and India have the highest figures for all three x, y and z, followed by Brazil and Russia with high y and z (lesser values for x) and hence have the chance to become the top 4 economic powers. Iran has a high x, but low y and z - its population is under 100 million. Hence its President Ahmedinejad is repeatedly calling for a rapid increase in the population. Once it reaches 300 million (as what currently the US has) the world will sit up and notice the shift. US has the least value for x, viz no heritage of its own, a high y and a low z. Great Britain has a reasonable x, and as long as it had its colonies which gave them a high y & z, it reigned as a super power, thereafter has come to nothing. Quoting their own bard Shakespeare "O, what a fall, my countrymen!"(Julius Caesar)
With 10 given for each x, y and z, my formula works out to the maximum 100, based on which one can work out the % of economic status.
Mohan Narayanan, You have a mathematical model is interesting. But we are going in hisory, England is a small country. There was a time when he ruled most of the world. Japan is a small country, it countinue to show the economic power. Still I appreciate your logic and study of nature.Thanks Gaurav. I think I had explained England's super power status due to the high y and z they had from the land areas they occupied (in their colonies) along with their populations - once these were gone after WW2, that was the end of England. As far as Japan is concerned, it has been always a paradox, an enigma - small land area, no natural resources -minerals & crude oil - of their own, but still an economic power. However much the world currencies fluctuate, the Yen keeps its strong position. I can attribute it to the shifting of manufacturing by the US after WW2 to Japan (US's guilty conscience of having dropped the 2 A-bombs), so that without their own local market, they had a huge z value through the population of US. My importance of z is not merely more people to work, but also to consume. Once the US market was grabbed by China, Japan started losing and has slipped today to the 3rd position and next year will go to the 4th.Mohan Narayanan, I appreiate your vast study of the subject. ThanksThanks Gaurav!
Change happens. Empires are built, become greedy and fall. Whatever is happening in the US will happen to China, and to India, if they follow the west, as they seem to be doing. What distresses me is that China has a horrendous human rights record, so for it to be a global power bodes badly for the world...Jennifer - I like your comment. These statistics are just on the paper but when it comes to face the reality in your own country, life is totally ugly with these politicians not giving any attention to poverty and price rise. No matter where the economy touches, but if you fail to deliver, super power or no power doesn't matter. Nothing works in government offices until you offer a bribe. An issue as simple as grocery ration card or even a passport which they promise to offer in ten days takes ten months. What is the point in focusing on issues which are not in our hands when people don't want to take responsibility to highlight more important issues which we are facing in the present?I am never a fan of China. Swami Vivekananda warned - India may have to be under Chinese rule for a short stint before it becomes a super power.Most of what he said has come true and I would never underestimate the 'enlightened' and that too a great stalwart like him.Drunken Mystic, I agree with your observation about the reality of India, life is quite ugly with these politicians do not give any attention to poverty and increase the price. India is a rich country but its people are poor because of the nexex corrupt politician and industrial who continue to move wealth India for tax havens, some say it amounts in trillion $. If it is brought back, India become developed very fast.
But my estimate is that it can not remain as such for ever. Either the nexex corrupt politician and industrial change or be killed and India would be pushed into communism Moist. Most of the rural population was already showing support to communism Moist and refusing to obey -so called India democracy of criminals and vote bank.Thank you. But still, even if they bring the money back you think it will be used for good. I doubt it. Look at how cleverly they divided the country by drawing borders between rivers so two state parties can fight for water to bag votes?
By the way, I want to inform you that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wants to arrange celebrations of 150th anniversary of Swami Vivekananda and I am dedicating his work through my articles. I would be glad if you contributed your views on them. Thank you.I am aware that you have good knowlede religious particulrly Hinduism Vedas and Upanishads. Swami Vivekananda is great scholor spiritual Vedic India and its mission is noble . It's good you're the follower.
But I think all present politicians of India are cunning including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Therefore our condition of the law is pititable. When a politician visiting a spiritual mission, he has cunning political goal. My view is that spiritual mission as confidence-Swami Vivekananda sould avoid seeking any certification of any political body whoever he may be.
I belive Prime Minister Manmohan Singh does not belive phiolospy of Swami VivekanandaHow come you say that? They are just working to show documentaries on his work and many students across the country are also involved in Pada yatra to spread awareness for his work. All I invited was a few views about him, not articles. ;-)
The PM in fact called for increasing awareness. The Mission never gets involved with politicians.You may disagree, my view is that pada Yatra and mission spiritual will spread more under some clean spiritual leader of the mission or spiritual leader of some other mission. Politican have their own agenda.True they have their own agenda. I don't disagree.Jennifer Stewart, I appreciate your comments.
But China and India have different values and ways of life and I think will never follow the west, as they seem to do.
Most people of India think that United States has violated more human rights than that of China and India. They killed indigenous people on their home and made the violated human rights of envionment, resulting whole population of world is suffereing, invasion of Iraq, Afghanisan, Vietnam, etc. They used more brothers from Africa as slaves. Persepective of human rights in India is different from the perespective of human rights in the United States and China.
Most people of Us consider freedom of expression is the most important human rights.Most man of India considers hunger and poor healh Asia and Africa is the most important human rights.
MR. Virk, when will the government offices start working efficiently and deliver in time. A postman takes bribe from a pensioner every month. You can't get a passport until you spend at least 10,000 to 15,000 rupees. That's the state. Economic power will never change things. The more you earn, the more they will ask you to pay bribe. That is the state of affairs.Drunken Mystic,In my opinion, our politicians have nexus with administrative schedules. When politicians become clean, it will make strigent law and its enforcement as in the west.
Our law is the same that was made by British rule. government offices starting to work efficiently and timely when nexus between politicians and the administration is broken.
The total value of corrution at higher level is 90% and about 10% to a lower level. I agree the issue of corruption at a level level is more in number , that is why you and I feel harassed.Definitely. I applied for a Tatkal passport in October and I still don't have it. :-)Drunken Mystic, If you go to court for justice, you will neither get passport or justice, because politician are following criminal law which British rule have made to just govern and loot. British rule were different for british and its colony.I hope you're right about China and India, Gaurav, but I believe that politicians are the same everywhere. They're in it for the power and not for the good they can do. Every now and then some very exceptional people become leaders, but they are not the norm. Has there ever been a country in the world that has become super powerful that hasn't abused its power? I ask that question genuinely, because I don't know.
I agree with you with regards to the US destroying American Indians and their culture, and also the havoc they've wrought in foreign countries, so you're right, their human rights abuse record isn't good.
I think it's way too broad of a generalization to say that "most people in the US consider freedom of expression to be most important human right." The US is a very big country, just as India and China are, with a lot of people, and a great deal of diversity of opinion. If I think about this community on SearchWarp, everybody I know has a very deep regard for the human condition, for people's challenges, for suffering. Is this just an unusual community? I don't know. I haven't spoken to everybody in America!
Generalizations are very satisfying to make - and we all do it all the time - but do they represent any truth? I think not, and that they can even foster prejudice...Jennifer Stewart, I do agree with you, you have corrected me. ThanksI enjoy discussing things with you, Gaurav, and your articles open up my mind. I became very aware after I'd written my last comment of how much I make generalizations all the time. We have corrected each other! That is good :)
Right on Gaurav. The U.S. must stop it's military spending dramatically, including but not least it's war on itself, which is home grown paramilitary forces (police) designed to oppress and imprison it's own people through the use of drug laws, which cripple it's economy and export trillions of dollars annually to other countries that supply the demand. They must return to freedom of the people in order to save themselves from internal implosion. Make no mistake though that as the economies of the emerging markets continue to thrive that they are not immune to the same policies of greed and exclusion of it's people to share in it's bounty that can cripple those economies as well. I know things look peachy there right now, but India as well as China have human rights violations of their own that can impede the progress that your countries are presently enjoying. Good luck.David Levitt, it is true that India and China had human rights violations on many issues.
human rights violations around the world including America, perceptions and priorities are different. India and China are four times more population than America, so first the human rights of its people with food and medicine. Second for education for children and homes and jobs and subsidy to run the life become important. People are not concerned admintration is run by King, Comminist, democracy or military ruler.
In this situation kind of crimes and dealing with crimes become different. And also take into account the rights of the majority to address human rights and criminal few by adminitation
I Know That America Spends More Than India's total budget for 1.3 billion people in jails and welfare prisioners , different techniques are applied to protect rights of majority with limited economy on criminals and viloations, it is natural some inhuman methods become applied on criminals including hanging till death
David Levitt, I Do not Understand - Why Americans Are More Concerned About the violation of human rights in China and India, which are soverien country living different different lifestyle and consitutional law and concentrate onthemselves
Is 300 million Americans are wiser then 2600 people in China and India. Is five hundred year old civilization of America is more wiser than five thousnd years of old civilization of India and China. Why minority want majority to follow them?
India and China see the American violation of human rights on isuues many, but never interfere with how to manipulate his peopleYou refer to American foreign policy, not the average American. We are not the same thing as our government. Our government is fascist and adheres to the policy set forth by corporations and not the American citizen. They have raped and robbed our economy and have left it's citizens without a voice, even in our own country, so please do not mistake them for us. The illusion of democracy and free speech is to pacify the masses and will no longer be tolerated if and when they so choose. All I am doing is warning you that if you have the freedoms to the extent that you seem to express. Be vigilant because chances are they are granted you only so long as they need you to have them, and will be allowed only so much as is necessary to buy their goods to enhance their fortunes. Our health and education have become secondary to the profit of our wealthy here, and could easily become there as well if you allow it to happen as we have. That's all.
David Levitt, I do agree that the average American are good and same as anywhere in world. The American foreign policy is controlled by corporation people of America who are hardly 1% and holder of 99% wealth of America.Always nice to learn from your views. thanks
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